The market for initial public offerings perked up globally in the second quarter of 2009 as new issues by already public firms reached record levels, leading top bankers to forecast a pick-up in IPOs by year-end.
With calmer markets and some successful deals, investor confidence is returning, the bankers said, setting the stage for a robust, sustained recovery by 2010.
"The IPO market is open. Investors are interested in companies new to the markets," said Lisa Carnoy, the global head of equity capital markets for Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The quarter saw a number of notable IPOs after a dormant first quarter, especially in the United States and China, where the government recently reopened the IPO market after a ten-month hiatus during which it drew up market reforms.
In the United States, which made up a quarter of global deal volume, notable IPOs included language instruction company Rosetta Stone Inc and restaurant reservations system OpenTable Inc, which soared in their debuts.
Elsewhere, blockbuster deals included IPOs by mining concern China Zhongwang Holdings Ltd, (1333.HK), which raised $1.27 billion in Hong Kong, and Vodafone's Qatari unit, which went public in a $929.3 million deal.
Yet despite the uptick in deals in the second quarter, IPO volume in dollar terms is down 91 percent so far this year compared with a year ago and pales in comparison to follow-ons, or new issues by public companies. Those have raised $207.8 billion worldwide in the second quarter, or 43 times more money, according to Thomson Reuters data.
"It's a drop in the equity markets' bucket but it is encouraging that people are buying these IPOs," said Mark Hantho, global head of equity capital markets at Deutsche Bank.
FOLLOW-ONS SURGE
That surge in follow-ons portends a strong IPO rebound, bankers said, because it reflects a return of risk appetite.
The quarter saw companies worldwide raise new shares primarily to repair balance sheets, and in the case of U.S. banks, to pass the government "stress tests," though Carnoy said she expects more issuance to be for funding growth now that many firms, banks in particular, have recapitalized.
In the United States, companies raised $89 billion in secondary offerings, including a record $45 billion in May alone, bringing volume up 54 percent so far in 2009 over the year-ago figures. Globally, they are up 16 percent.
Major deals in the second quarter include a $19.4 billion follow-on by UK-based bank HSBC Holdings PLC and a $5.75 billion offering by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
OUTLOOK
The strength of the recent IPOs -- in the United States, no IPO this year has fallen in its first day of trading -- will stir the deal pipeline later this year, bankers predicted.
"This market strength is prompting issuers to get ready so that in the third and fourth quarters you'll see these numbers increase," said John Chirico, co-head of capital markets origination for the Americas at Citi.
"It's been a small group so far but the market gave them a fair hearing," Chirico said.
The second quarter saw the return of foreign firms launching IPOs on U.S. exchanges, including three Chinese companies, signaling growing investor appetite for riskier stocks.
Bankers are not surprised IPOs have picked up first in the the United States and China.
"If you look at the list of IPOs, it is dominated by the U.S. and China and countries that have been most aggressive in stimulating their economies," said Jeff Bunzel, managing director for equity capital markets at Credit Suisse.
Those efforts will keep U.S. buyers interested in China.
"It's not surprising that in a growing economy such as China's, we will see a lot of IPOs. The institutional market is starved for quality growth companies," Hantho said.
For now, the modest streak of successful IPOs is prompting some companies in the pipeline to think about going public themselves.
"Hopefully we'll see more filings and a pick-up in the latter half of the year. Based on the conversations we are having, we will see a significant pickup in IPOs going into 2010," Carnoy said.
